Historic US-Brokered Peace Deal Between Congo and Rwanda: A Turning Point for Africa’s Great Lakes Region?

June 28, 2025

In a significant diplomatic breakthrough, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Rwanda signed a US-brokered peace agreement on June 27, 2025, aiming to end decades of conflict in eastern Congo that has claimed over six million lives since the 1990s^[8]^[13]^[14]. The accord, signed at the US State Department by DRC Foreign Minister Thérèse Kayikwamba Wagner and Rwandan Foreign Minister Olivier Nduhungirehe under Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s supervision, marks the most substantial peace initiative in 30 years of cyclical violence^[8]^[13]^[15]. This development emerges as US President Donald Trump personally mediated the negotiations, securing what he described as “a lot of mineral rights” for the United States in exchange for brokering the truce between these historic adversaries^[13]^[14]. The agreement stipulates Rwanda’s withdrawal of troops from eastern DRC within 90 days, mutual respect for territorial integrity, cessation of hostilities, and a framework for economic cooperation including shared mineral revenues and joint infrastructure projects^[8]^[13]^[15]. While UN Secretary-General António Guterres hailed the deal as “an important step towards de-escalation,” lingering concerns persist about the exclusion of the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group from negotiations and the agreement’s enforceability in a region where previous accords have collapsed^[2]^[13]^[16].

Historical Context of the Conflict

The roots of the conflict trace back to the aftermath of the Rwandan genocide in 1994, when Hutu militias fled into eastern Congo, triggering regional warfare that drew in nine African nations and spawned over 120 armed groups^[14]^[15]. Despite abundant mineral wealth in cobalt, lithium, and coltan—critical for electric vehicles and electronics—the eastern DRC provinces of North and South Kivu have endured systematic violence characterized by mass displacement, sexual violence, and resource plundering^[10]^[14]. A 2023 UN report confirmed Rwanda’s direct military support to the M23 rebels, who captured the provincial capitals of Goma and Bukavu earlier in 2025, exacerbating humanitarian catastrophes with over 7.8 million displaced people^[14]^[16]. Previous peace initiatives consistently faltered due to mutual distrust, cross-border proxy warfare, and competing economic interests in the mineral-rich borderlands, creating what analysts term “Africa’s world war”^[14]^[15]. The current agreement builds upon a dormant 2024 framework but introduces unprecedented US economic incentives and security guarantees absent in prior efforts^[8]^[13].

The Agreement’s Strategic Provisions

Central to the Washington Accord is a sequenced implementation process combining security commitments with economic integration. Within the 90-day deadline, Rwandan forces must withdraw from Congolese territory while both nations establish a joint minerals corridor with US-backed traceability mechanisms to prevent “conflict minerals” funding armed groups^[10]^[14]. Economic provisions include plans for a binational hydroelectric plant, shared transport infrastructure, and transparent revenue-sharing from mining operations—measures designed to align peace with prosperity^[15]. Crucially, the deal positions the US as a primary investor in DRC’s critical minerals sector, countering China’s current monopoly over cobalt extraction and processing^[10]^[14]. President Trump framed this economic dimension as reciprocal compensation, asserting: “We’re getting for the United States a lot of the mineral rights from Congo” in exchange for diplomatic intervention^[13]. Secretary Rubio characterized the pact as redefining regional power dynamics through “resource access with political stabilization,” signaling Washington’s strategic pivot toward supply chain resilience in clean energy materials^[10]^[14].

Divergent Perspectives on the Deal

Congolese Foreign Minister Wagner invoked victims’ expectations during the signing ceremony, stating: “Those who have suffered the most are watching. They are expecting this agreement to be respected, and we cannot fail them”^[8]^[13]. Her Rwandan counterpart Nduhungirehe acknowledged “great deal of uncertainty” given past failures but expressed cautious optimism about US-enforced accountability^[13]. Former World Bank executive Frannie Léautier praised the agreement for “recasting Central Africa’s narrative from endless conflict to integrated opportunity,” particularly through its potential to accelerate the African Continental Free Trade Area^[10]. However, Atlantic Council analyst Alexandrina Maloney warned that ignoring root causes—including citizenship disputes affecting Kinyarwanda-speaking Congolese and land rights grievances—risks repeating past collapses^[14]. The most significant challenge emerges from M23’s non-participation; the militia’s spokesperson dismissed the accord as “irrelevant” to their demands for political representation in eastern Congo, indicating potential spoiler violence^[13]^[14]. CSIS researcher Tressa Guenov further noted Russia and China could undermine implementation through misinformation campaigns or alternative arms deals^[10]^[14].

Implications and Future Scenarios

Successful implementation could transform Africa’s Great Lakes region by enabling cross-border trade, attracting foreign investment, and integrating displaced communities^[10]^[15]. UN humanitarian agencies emphasize that peace would facilitate aid delivery to 26 million food-insecure Congolese while allowing Rwanda to redirect military spending toward development in one of the world’s poorest nations^[14]^[16]. Conversely, failure risks escalating violence as M23 exploits security vacuums during Rwanda’s withdrawal, potentially triggering renewed regional intervention^[14]. The mineral dimension introduces additional complexity: while US investment promises better mining governance, current artisanal miners fear exclusion from industrial extraction, possibly fueling local resentment^[10]^[14]. Belgian Foreign Minister Maxime Prévot captured the cautious international consensus: “Effective implementation is crucial to finally achieve lasting peace”^[15]. As both presidents prepare for a Trump-hosted signing ceremony in coming weeks, the accord represents not merely a ceasefire but a test case for whether economic interdependence can overcome historical animosities where diplomacy alone failed^[8]^[13]^[15].

Why This Agreement Matters Beyond Africa

This peace initiative intersects with three global priorities: securing critical minerals for climate goals, demonstrating US diplomatic effectiveness amid great-power competition, and establishing conflict-resolution precedents. With the DRC holding 70% of global cobalt reserves and substantial lithium deposits, sustainable extraction is essential for the green energy transition; the US now seeks to challenge China’s dominance through ethical sourcing frameworks^[10]^[14]. Politically, the deal bolsters President Trump’s narrative of tangible foreign policy achievements ahead of the 2026 elections, contrasting with stalled Gaza ceasefire efforts^[1]^[4]. For conflict resolution theory, the linkage of mineral access to political stabilization—mirroring recent US-Ukraine minerals agreements—offers a model for resource-driven conflicts worldwide^[10]. As former African Development Bank Vice President Léautier observes, the agreement signals that “supply chain resilience is not just commercial but a security imperative,” potentially recalibrating how major powers engage with resource-rich conflict zones^[10]. Ultimately, while the road remains fraught, this accord represents the most credible pathway in decades toward silencing what UN officials call “the world’s deadliest conflict since 1945”^[14]^[16].

Sources

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